East Asian Liberalization and the Challenge from China

macroeconomics, East Asian Liberalization, China

The Global Financial Crisis: Decoupling of East Asia—Myth or Reality?

The “decoupling” of East Asia from its economic interactions—both in trade and finance—with the rest of the world refers to the phenomenon of a weakening of the impact of demand and supply shocks emanating from the advanced countries on the region’s economic performance since the early 1990s. Available empirical evidence, including the faster recovery of East Asia from the 2008 global economic crisis, does not appear to lend credence to the decoupling thesis. However, with increases in income throughout the region and the three free trade agreements of the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and Korea with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (which have entered into force), East Asia will witness a continuing expansion in intra-regional trade, much of which will consist of horizontal intra-industry trade. At the same time, if East Asia succeeds in instituting an efficient capital control regime and in strengthening the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization, it will be able to cope better with the volatility of capital flows to the region. Together these developments will then help speed up economic integration among ASEAN+3 member states to build a region that is more self-contained than it has been.global economic crisis; decoupling east asia; free trade agreements; intra-regional trade; chiang mai initiative multilateralization

REFORM OF THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND INSTITUTIONS IN LIGHT OF THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

When East Asian countries came under speculative attacks in 1997, some of them were not able to defend themselves, and subsequently had to seek the financial assistance of IMF and accept its stabilization programmes. These crisis-hit countries were criticized for not having restructured their financial, corporate, and public sectors along the lines suggested by the Washington consensus. This failure was singled out as the main cause of the crisis and, understandably, these crisis-hit countries were subject to heavy doses of structural reforms. The East Asian crisis became contagious, even threatening the stability of major international financial centres. The severity and contagiousness of the East Asian crisis underscored the importance of, and renewed interest in, reforming the international financial system. Numerous proposals have been put forward. The G-7-led reform, however, has concentrated its efforts on reforming the financial and corporate sectors of developing economies, while by and large ignoring the problems of the supply side of international finance. As was the case in the Mexican crisis of 1994/95, the appetite for radical reform of the international financial system has receded considerably in the wake of global recovery. The ongoing debate on the future direction of the international financial reform in fact suggests that most of the problems that beset the international financial system are likely to remain unchanged. This pessimistic outlook arouses deep concern in developing countries lest they remain vulnerable to future financial crises, even if they faithfully carry out the kinds of reform recommended by IMF and the World Bank. Given this reality, developing countries may have to develop a defence mechanism of their own by instituting a system of capital control and adopting an exchange rate system that lies somewhere between the two corner solutions.

Korean Growth Policy

macroeconomics, Korea, economic policy, development

Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia: The Relevance of European Experience

This report examines the process of economic and financial integration in East Asia in the light of Europe's experience. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of East Asian monetary and financial integration process (including a deep analysis of East Asia's response to the 1997-98 financial crisis), a comprehensive critical survey of the literature on monetary and financial integration in East Asia, and an assessment of the various initiatives undertaken in the region for financial cooperation and macroeconomic surveillance. Its aim is to evaluate the evolution of the last decade and to offer policy suggestions. The main policy recommendations concern essentially two areas: (i) how to promote the creation of a regional financial market in Asia and (ii) how to encourage cooperation and macroeconomic surveillance in the region. (Provisional version. The printed publication will be delayed until the final text is available).Regional Integration, Financial integration, Monetary cooperation, mutual surveillance, East Asia, European Monetary Union,Park, Wyplosz

The financial crisis in Korea and its lessons for reform ofthe international financial system

노트 : - Title: Regulatory and supervisory challenges in a new era of global financ

Prospects for Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the exchange rate policy of the Republic of Korea, and its role in promoting financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. The Republic of Korea would not actively participate in any discussion of establishing a regional monetary and exchange rate arrangement as it is expected to maintain a weakly managed floating regime. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been fostering the yuan as an international currency, which will lay the groundwork for forming a yuan area among the PRC; the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); Hong Kong, the PRC; and Taipei,China. Japan has shown less interest in assuming a greater role in East Asia’s economic integration due to deflation, a strong yen, slow growth, and political instability. Japan would not eschew free floating. These recent developments demand a new modality of monetary cooperation among the Republic of Korea, Japan, and the PRC. Otherwise, ASEAN+3 will lose its rationale for steering regional economic integration in East Asia.exchange rate policy; republic of korea; financial monetary cooperation; east asia; global financial crisis; regional economic integration

Recovery and Sustainability in East Asia

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic adjustment from the crisis in East Asia in a broad international prospective. The stylized pattern from the previous 160 currency crisis episodes over the period from 1970 to 1995 shows a V-type adjustment of real GDP growth in the years prior to and following a crisis. The adjustment shows a much sharper V-type in the crisis episodes with the IMF program, compared to those without. Cross-country regressions show that depreciation of real exchange rate, expansionary macroeconomic policies and favorable global environments are critical for the speedy post-crisis recovery. In this sense, the East Asian process of adjustment is not much different from the stylized pattern from the previous currency crisis episodes. However, the degree of initial contraction and following recovery has been far greater in East Asia than what the cross-country evidence predicts. This paper argues that the sharper adjustment pattern in East Asia is attributed to the severe liquidity crisis that was triggered by investor's panic and then amplified by the weak corporate and bank balance sheet. We find no evidence for a direct impact of a currency crisis on long-run growth.